Know which clients today’s news touches, before they call.
Tilt Pulse is a daily briefing on the news that moves your book. Every story comes with possible outcomes, how likely they are, and what it does to a portfolio. Those effects come from our World Economic Simulator (WES), a model of how the economy is connected. See how it works
Brent tops $100 for a third day after Iran rejects the latest Hormuz offer
Iran turned down a US proposal to reopen the strait in stages, and traders pushed Brent back to about $104. Higher fuel costs feed straight into headline inflation, which the Fed is watching closely.
64%Fed raises rates again as oil keeps inflation above 3%−2.1%
27%Fed holds at 3.75–4.00% as a Hormuz deal pulls oil lower+1.5%
9%Fed hikes twice more, to 4.25–4.50%−3.8%
Why −2.1%? Trace it through the economy
SignalLive
Oil price, 20 days
+20%0+40%
TriggerMet
If the company sells oil
EffectRevenue rises with the price
SHEL+4.54%
XOM+3.95%
CVX+3.66%
TriggerMet
If the company barely uses oil
EffectLittle change either way
AVGO+0.15%
MSFT−0.21%
TriggerMet
If the company pays for fuel or freight in oil
EffectCosts rise, margins shrink
TM−0.50%
AMZN−1.12%
GE−1.13%
TSLA−2.09%
OutputHousehold
−2.1%Its holdings, plus rate and market moves
Company figures are a WES run of oil +20% over 20 days with the broad market held flat. The household adds up what it owns, plus the outcome’s rate and market moves; that figure is illustrative.
In your book · Tilt Pulse Pro
14 households most exposed · ranked by estimated impact
6 energy overweights · 3 near a Charter drift band
2 clients asked their agent about it overnight · both on the record
Under the hood · A World Economic Simulator (WES)
Ask the economy a question. Get an answer for every company.
WES is a working model of how the economy is connected: who supplies, buys from, lends to and competes with whom. Tilt Pulse uses it to follow each story to every company, then to every portfolio you manage.
Companies and other economic players
51,454
Relationships between them
150,825
Economic drivers WES can move
186
Source documents behind the links
130,243
If this happened
Chip makers win. Chip buyers pay.
Two clients who both “own AI” can land on opposite sides: a portfolio of the makers (NVDA, TSM, MSFT) moves +6.54%; one of the buyers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL) moves −0.40%.
NVDA+9.03%
AMD+8.10%
TSM+7.14%
AVGO+6.50%
GOOGL+0.47%
MSFT−0.57%
AMZN−0.69%
AAPL−2.03%
−4%0%+4%+8%+12%
One industry, opposite signs.
Tesla gains the most; Ford and Toyota lose. “Autos” says nothing about which side of the shift a company is on.
TSLA+8.17%
GM+2.88%
MSFT−0.14%
AVGO−0.29%
TM−3.03%
F−3.10%
−4%0%+4%+8%+12%
Producers up. Fuel users down.
Shell, Exxon and Chevron rise. Amazon’s delivery fleet, GE’s input costs and Tesla’s demand feel the bill.
SHEL+4.54%
XOM+3.95%
CVX+3.66%
AMZN−1.12%
GE−1.13%
TSLA−2.09%
−4%0%+4%+8%+12%
Dearer money finds the borrowers.
GM, GE and the big banks give back the most. Cash-rich Broadcom and Microsoft come out slightly ahead.
AVGO+1.99%
MSFT+0.56%
JPM−0.66%
BAC−0.73%
GE−1.49%
GM−2.05%
−4%0%+4%+8%+12%
The drug makers, and almost nobody else.
Novo Nordisk, Lilly and Viking move. The rest of the economy moves by hundredths of a percent.
NVO+10.18%
LLY+9.48%
VKTX+7.87%
MSFT−0.11%
AMZN−0.11%
TSLA−0.15%
−4%0%+4%+8%+12%
Each run holds the broad market flat, over 20 days unless noted. These are “if this happens” answers, not forecasts. Figures from WES research runs; the two AI portfolios are illustrative.
Sized right on average across nine historical economic shocks. Better at ranking who’s impacted in 5 of 5 held-out tests. 48 of 48 consistency checks passed.
From three WES studies i.e. not a combined score. Scenarios show “if this happens,” not predicted returns.
One briefing, two editions
The free edition is for anyone who wants the daily read on their own portfolio. Tilt Pulse Pro is for firms, and runs the same briefing across every client account.
Free · direct
Tilt Pulse
The daily email. News tailored to what you manage, with the possible outcomes of each story, their odds and their projected impact.